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NoNoNo
balthazarCTR<$100YesYesYesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Katherine Clark be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 57%
Total Value
$77.77
Combined PnL
-$103.47
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$77.77
Total Shares78
Combined PnL-$1.04
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,734
Combined PnL-$102.43
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.75 | $31.76 | +$0.01 | 40% 1475-2199 (3674) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $30 | +$0.03 | 29% 892-2183 (3075) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $16 | $16.01 | +$0.01 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $85.56 | — | -$85.56 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $13.7 | — | -$13.7 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $33.12 | — | -$2.53 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.63 | — 3-14 (17) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $29.99 | — | -$1.1 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
$31.75
Value
$31.76
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
1475-2199 (3674)
MI
mildwindow27<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
892-2183 (3075)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$16
Value
$16.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$85.56
Value
—
PnL
-$85.56
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$13.7
Value
—
PnL
-$13.7
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
$33.12
Value
—
PnL
-$2.53
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
GI
GingerMcKennaCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.63
Record
—
3-14 (17)
SM
smallreceipt<$100Invested
$29.99
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcbf6fa5c...269be8
Slug
will-katherine-clark-be-the-first-house-minority-leader-after-the-2026-midterms