Will Katherine Clark be the next House Majority Leader?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 82¢ · $385 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$384.51
$1.25
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $349.74 | $339.85 | -$9.88 | 76% 600-191 (791) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $32.48 | $37.56 | +$5.08 | 43% 2824-3735 (6559) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $30.38 | $6.29 | +$5.91 | 35% 17316-32015 (49331) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $0.66 | $0.81 | +$0.15 | 40% 5239-8002 (13241) |
KimchiCapitalInvested
$349.74
Value
$339.85
PnL
-$9.88
Record
76%
600-191 (791)
Invested
$32.48
Value
$37.56
PnL
+$5.08
Record
43%
2824-3735 (6559)
Invested
$30.38
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$5.91
Record
35%
17316-32015 (49331)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0.15
Record
40%
5239-8002 (13241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.