Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Karla Arely Espinoza win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$0.58
-$23.29
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $7.27 | $0.15 | -$7.12 | 35% 3830-6996 (10826) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $5.41 | $0.11 | -$5.3 | 39% 3708-5917 (9625) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $4.17 | $0.09 | -$4.08 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.17 | $0.08 | +$0 | 28% 1057-2761 (3818) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.98 | $0.06 | -$2.91 | 33% 313-636 (949) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.02 | $0.04 | -$1.98 | 38% 289-472 (761) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.67 | $0.04 | -$1.63 | 43% 5134-6831 (11965) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.15 | $0 | -$0.15 | 14% 93-569 (662) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.12 | $0 | -$0.12 | 37% 1569-2700 (4269) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$7.27
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$7.12
Record
35%
3830-6996 (10826)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$5.3
Record
39%
3708-5917 (9625)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$4.08
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
1057-2761 (3818)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$2.91
Record
33%
313-636 (949)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.98
Record
38%
289-472 (761)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.63
Record
43%
5134-6831 (11965)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.15
Record
14%
93-569 (662)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.12
Record
37%
1569-2700 (4269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.