Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $801 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$800.96
-$31.15
99.4¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 99.4¢ | $792.19 | $766.83 | -$25.35 | 52% 242-219 (461) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $14.7 | $14.44 | -$0.26 | 49% 8836-9340 (18176) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $11.9 | $11.56 | -$0.34 | 59% 11831-8157 (19988) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $9.43 | $5.19 | -$3.72 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.5 | $1.5 | +$0 | 73% 12861-4791 (17652) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $2.91 | $1.44 | -$1.47 | 18% 4279-20045 (24324) |
Invested
$792.19
Value
$766.83
PnL
-$25.35
Record
52%
242-219 (461)
Invested
$14.7
Value
$14.44
PnL
-$0.26
Record
49%
8836-9340 (18176)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$0.34
Record
59%
11831-8157 (19988)
Invested
$9.43
Value
$5.19
PnL
-$3.72
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
12861-4791 (17652)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$1.47
Record
18%
4279-20045 (24324)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.