Will Kansas win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$1.3K
$5.65
91.9¢ → 89.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 89%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$14.96 | 39% 1052-1631 (2683) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 96.9¢ | $122.93 | $112.47 | -$10.46 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $81.14 | $79.34 | +$0.91 | 66% 4093-2118 (6211) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $34.09 | $27.15 | +$0.66 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $25.26 | $24.84 | -$0.42 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
Invested
$1,078
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$14.96
Record
39%
1052-1631 (2683)
LucerysInvested
$122.93
Value
$112.47
PnL
-$10.46
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$81.14
Value
$79.34
PnL
+$0.91
Record
66%
4093-2118 (6211)
Invested
$34.09
Value
$27.15
PnL
+$0.66
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
Invested
$25.26
Value
$24.84
PnL
-$0.42
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.