Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$500.21

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 53.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,348

Combined PnL+$616.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$698.39

Total Shares1,470

Combined PnL-$116.06

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

238h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 38.7¢	$664.89	$447.24	+$181.14	35% 17355-32033 (49388)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$500.95	$440.34	-$69.88	41% 2002-2836 (4838)
OM omoi0i0ARB<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$444.34	$398.96	-$45.38	57% 1567-1203 (2770)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.5¢	$316.23	$231.5	-$84.77
└ No leg	Noavg 40.9¢	$128.05	$167.46	+$39.39
AN anciano	Noavg 46¢	$1.0K	$303.64	+$361.53	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$298.8	$258.05	-$46.18	66% 918-479 (1397)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 37.1¢	$120.26	$168.95	+$48.68	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 54.4¢	$271.76	$121.05	-$23.87	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$57.99	$80.23	+$22.25	43% 469-622 (1091)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 31.9¢	$50.76	$78.31	+$37.62	74% 12150-4326 (16476)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 52.6¢	$171.47	$48.51	-$11.06	48% 6864-7497 (14361)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$664.89

Value

$447.24

PnL

+$181.14

Record

35%

17355-32033 (49388)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$500.95

Value

$440.34

PnL

-$69.88

Record

41%

2002-2836 (4838)

omoi0i0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$444.34

Value

$398.96

PnL

-$45.38

Record

57%

1567-1203 (2770)

Both legs:

Yes$316.2363.5¢-$84.77

No$128.0540.9¢+$39.39

anciano

Invested

$1,036.44

Value

$303.64

PnL

+$361.53

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$298.8

Value

$258.05

PnL

-$46.18

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$120.26

Value

$168.95

PnL

+$48.68

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$271.76

Value

$121.05

PnL

-$23.87

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

0x53eCc53E7<$100

Invested

$57.99

Value

$80.23

PnL

+$22.25

Record

43%

469-622 (1091)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$50.76

Value

$78.31

PnL

+$37.62

Record

74%

12150-4326 (16476)

Gaditima

Invested

$171.47

Value

$48.51

PnL

-$11.06

Record

48%

6864-7497 (14361)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

238h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.