Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 97¢ · $789 held · ends Nov 13

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$788.64

Combined PnL

-$24.83

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 97.3¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$697.55

Total Shares712

Combined PnL+$31.27

No3 traders

Total Value$91.09

Total Shares1,676

Combined PnL-$56.1

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 92.3¢	$521.59	$551.39	+$29.81	72% 1106-420 (1526)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Yesavg 91.4¢	$98.13	$89.16	+$6.76	— 2-4 (6)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 4.9¢	$1.1K	$44.55	-$53.5	66% 4051-2064 (6115)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 97.7¢	$47.92	$42.68	-$5.24	40% 3002-4411 (7413)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$44.4	$36.6	-$7.8	0% 1-266 (267)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$14.37	$14.32	-$0.05	52% 5301-4808 (10109)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$4.74	$9.94	+$5.2	— 0-17 (17)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$521.59

Value

$551.39

PnL

+$29.81

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.13

Value

$89.16

PnL

+$6.76

Record

—

2-4 (6)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$1,110.57

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$53.5

Record

66%

4051-2064 (6115)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.92

Value

$42.68

PnL

-$5.24

Record

40%

3002-4411 (7413)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100

Invested

$44.4

Value

$36.6

PnL

-$7.8

Record

1-266 (267)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$14.32

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

5301-4808 (10109)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$5.2

Record

—

0-17 (17)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.