Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 74¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 11

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.5K

Combined PnL

$12.3K

Smart Money Entry

32.8¢ → 74¢

+125% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 15 top traders (60%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$29.6K

Total Shares39,516

Combined PnL+$15.6K

No6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares12,525

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 35.8¢	$9.7K	$10.0K	+$4.3K	72% 1106-420 (1526)
seal7ARB<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$16.7K	$8.0K	$-8.7K	0% 0-77 (77)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.9¢	$14.8K	$5.7K	$-9.0K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.7¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$297.58
smellyEllie	Yesavg 26.2¢	$2.8K	$7.7K	+$4.8K	— 0-7 (7)
32 328.400.fund	Yesavg 23.6¢	$1.5K	$4.5K	+$3.0K	55% 42-34 (76)
TR troim	Yesavg 45.9¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$809.85	0% 0-332 (332)
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 40.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1.3K	— 5-5 (10)
Humble-Monk	Yesavg 26.8¢	$599.81	$1.6K	+$991.38	0% 0-83 (83)
clazzy1CTR	Noavg 73.3¢	$3.9K	$1.5K	$-2.4K	0% 0-37 (37)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$6.68	85% 441-76 (517)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.8¢	$532.62	$975.28	+$442.65
└ No leg	Noavg 52.8¢	$956.99	$507.66	-$449.34
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 23¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$90.57	— 5-5 (10)
PB pbshine	Yesavg 58.2¢	$694.63	$883.19	+$188.56	— 0-3 (3)
G.Hchen	Yesavg 55.3¢	$691.45	$679.5	+$91.55	0% 0-96 (96)
Rex416CTR	Noavg 73.1¢	$1.5K	$560	-$902.06	— 4-0 (4)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 44.1¢	$437.92	$447.94	+$10.01	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.1¢	$221.8	$356.71	+$134.91
└ No leg	Noavg 66.3¢	$216.12	$91.23	-$124.89
RelaccsedARB<$100	Noavg 38.8¢	$312.79	$283.78	+$20.99	— 4-1 (5)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$50	$152	+$102
└ No leg	Noavg 38.8¢	$212.79	$131.79	-$81.01
HoshinoAIARB<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$2.2K	$120.43	-$110.75	— 10-8 (18)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.8¢	$41.58	$86	+$23.89
└ No leg	Noavg 49.7¢	$65.81	$34.44	-$134.65
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$90.9	$89.1	-$1.8	— 1-9 (10)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$64.8	$63.9	-$0.9
└ No leg	Noavg 29¢	$26.1	$25.2	-$0.9
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 45.1¢	$222.32	$85.17	-$8.15	— 0-12 (12)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.5¢	$27.69	$64.3	+$37.3
└ No leg	Noavg 45.1¢	$38.42	$20.87	-$45.45
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$257.75	$83.17	-$13.15	— 1-10 (11)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.3¢	$41.43	$59.65	+$9.32
└ No leg	Noavg 61.5¢	$51.64	$23.52	-$22.47
arjennnnnCTR	Noavg 74¢	$148	$56	-$92	68% 516-238 (754)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 22.5¢	$299.83	$49.07	+$89.57	66% 4056-2071 (6127)
71 71122<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$17	$35.5	+$18.5	— 4-2 (6)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$27.75	$21	-$6.75	50% 4494-4439 (8933)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$9,727.72

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

seal7ARB<$100

Invested

$16,720.84

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-8.7K

Record

0-77 (77)

Both legs:

No$14,756.0271.9¢$-9.0K

Yes$1,964.8361.7¢+$297.58

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$2,825.73

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

—

0-7 (7)

328.400.fund

Yes

Invested

$1,490.9

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

55%

42-34 (76)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,374.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$809.85

Record

0-332 (332)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$2,027.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Humble-Monk

Yes

Invested

$599.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$991.38

Record

0-83 (83)

clazzy1CTR

Invested

$3,896.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

0-37 (37)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$1,489.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$6.68

Record

85%

441-76 (517)

Both legs:

Yes$532.6238.8¢+$442.65

No$956.9952.8¢-$449.34

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$1,114.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$90.57

Record

—

5-5 (10)

pbshine

Yes

Invested

$694.63

Value

$883.19

PnL

+$188.56

Record

—

0-3 (3)

G.Hchen

Yes

Invested

$691.45

Value

$679.5

PnL

+$91.55

Record

0-96 (96)

Rex416CTR

Invested

$1,462.06

Value

$560

PnL

-$902.06

Record

—

4-0 (4)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$437.92

Value

$447.94

PnL

+$10.01

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

Both legs:

Yes$221.844.1¢+$134.91

No$216.1266.3¢-$124.89

RelaccsedARB<$100

Invested

$312.79

Value

$283.78

PnL

+$20.99

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Both legs:

Yes$5025¢+$102

No$212.7938.8¢-$81.01

HoshinoAIARB<$100

Invested

$2,180.41

Value

$120.43

PnL

-$110.75

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Both legs:

Yes$41.5835.8¢+$23.89

No$65.8149.7¢-$134.65

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.9

Value

$89.1

PnL

-$1.8

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Both legs:

Yes$64.872¢-$0.9

No$26.129¢-$0.9

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$222.32

Value

$85.17

PnL

-$8.15

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

Yes$27.6932.5¢+$37.3

No$38.4245.1¢-$45.45

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Invested

$257.75

Value

$83.17

PnL

-$13.15

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Both legs:

Yes$41.4349.3¢+$9.32

No$51.6461.5¢-$22.47

arjennnnnCTR

Invested

$148

Value

$56

PnL

-$92

Record

68%

516-238 (754)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$299.83

Value

$49.07

PnL

+$89.57

Record

66%

4056-2071 (6127)

71122<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$18.5

Record

—

4-2 (6)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

$21

PnL

-$6.75

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 15 top traders (60%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.