Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 1:59 AM ET?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 84.5¢

+19% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares10,380

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$337.59

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL-$85.34

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Rex416	Noavg 66.1¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$630.19	— 5-0 (5)
smellyEllie	Noavg 69.9¢	$4.0K	$2.4K	+$463.82	— 0-7 (7)
JO JokerTheClown	Noavg 81.2¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$153.92	0% 0-188 (188)
PB pbshine	Noavg 68.5¢	$684.99	$689.99	+$5	— 0-3 (3)
clazzy1	Noavg 68¢	$351.96	$354.55	+$2.59	0% 0-37 (37)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$390	$310	-$80	1% 2-332 (334)
G.Hchen	Noavg 76¢	$304	$244	-$60	0% 0-96 (96)
RelaccsedARB<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$233.43	$203.6	-$2.13	— 4-1 (5)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.5¢	$82.45	$109.35	+$27.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$123.5	$94.25	-$29.25
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 69.7¢	$113.37	$95.68	+$1.81	41% 3090-4455 (7545)
HoshinoAIARB<$100	Noavg 68¢	$1.2K	$91.99	-$92.44	48% 10-11 (21)
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$56.45	$70.51	-$21.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.1¢	$38.76	$21.47	-$70.84
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$46.23	$83.28	+$37.05	— 7-12 (19)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7¢	$17.22	$44.28	+$27.06
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$29.01	$39	+$9.99
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 62¢	$28.28	$28	-$0.28	15% 3-17 (20)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$32.93	$27.59	-$5.34	23% 511-1693 (2204)
EL Electricy<$100	Noavg 65¢	$23.56	$25.01	+$1.45	— 0-4 (4)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.2	$13.8	+$4.6	82% 516-115 (631)

Rex416

Invested

$2,148.55

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$630.19

Record

—

5-0 (5)

smellyEllie

Invested

$3,958.09

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$463.82

Record

—

0-7 (7)

JokerTheClown

Invested

$1,843.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$153.92

Record

0-188 (188)

pbshine

Invested

$684.99

Value

$689.99

PnL

+$5

Record

—

0-3 (3)

clazzy1

Invested

$351.96

Value

$354.55

PnL

+$2.59

Record

0-37 (37)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$390

Value

$310

PnL

-$80

Record

2-332 (334)

G.Hchen

Invested

$304

Value

$244

PnL

-$60

Record

0-96 (96)

RelaccsedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$233.43

Value

$203.6

PnL

-$2.13

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Both legs:

No$82.4564.5¢+$27.12

Yes$123.519¢-$29.25

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$113.37

Value

$95.68

PnL

+$1.81

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

HoshinoAIARB<$100

Invested

$1,215.35

Value

$91.99

PnL

-$92.44

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

Both legs:

No$56.4568¢-$21.59

Yes$38.7627.1¢-$70.84

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100

Invested

$46.23

Value

$83.28

PnL

+$37.05

Record

—

7-12 (19)

Both legs:

Yes$17.227¢+$27.06

No$29.0161¢+$9.99

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$28.28

Value

$28

PnL

-$0.28

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.93

Value

$27.59

PnL

-$5.34

Record

23%

511-1693 (2204)

Electricy<$100

Invested

$23.56

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$1.45

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$4.6

Record

82%

516-115 (631)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.