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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $149 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$149.36
$52.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $58.31 | $68.29 | +$54.51 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $54.9 | $62.73 | +$7.83 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $40.36 | $40.85 | +$0.49 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $14.53 | $21.87 | +$7.34 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $7.75 | $7.66 | -$0.09 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.3 | $5.24 | -$0.06 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.01 | $3.96 | -$0.05 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $6.4 | $1.48 | -$1.4 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
Invested
$58.31
Value
$68.29
PnL
+$54.51
Record
—
Invested
$54.9
Value
$62.73
PnL
+$7.83
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$7.75
Value
$7.66
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$0.06
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$1.4
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.