Will Jynxzi win Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$85.27
-$0.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $53.48 | $54.21 | +$0.73 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $17.86 | $18.07 | +$0.21 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $5.17 | $5.22 | +$0.05 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $4.4 | $3.86 | -$0.54 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $2.27 | $1.99 | -$0.29 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $2.12 | $1.93 | -$0.19 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
Invested
$53.48
Value
$54.21
PnL
+$0.73
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
balthazar<$100Invested
$17.86
Value
$18.07
PnL
+$0.21
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$3.86
PnL
-$0.54
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$2.27
Value
$1.99
PnL
-$0.29
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$0.19
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.