Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 66¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 12

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$66.26

Combined PnL

$1.29

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$55.03

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$1.5

No2 traders

Total Value$11.22

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 65.8¢	$43.78	$45.03	+$1.25	41% 3064-4447 (7511)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 62.5¢	$13.25	$10	+$0.25	15% 3-17 (20)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$9.45	$9.18	-$0.27	12% 16-115 (131)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.98	$2.04	+$0.06	85% 62-11 (73)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.78

Value

$45.03

PnL

+$1.25

Record

41%

3064-4447 (7511)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.25

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.25

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.27

Record

12%

16-115 (131)

auros2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.06

Record

85%

62-11 (73)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.