Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 34¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$75.8
-$0.39
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $54.14 | $55.01 | +$0.87 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $31.95 | $32.06 | +$0.11 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31.9¢ | $22.19 | $22.95 | +$0.76 | |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $13.25 | $9.9 | +$0.15 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $9.45 | $8.91 | -$0.54 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.98 | $1.98 | -$0 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
Invested
$54.14
Value
$55.01
PnL
+$0.87
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.25
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.54
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.