Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 97¢ · $982 held · ends May 29, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, May 29, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$981.95

Combined PnL

$72.25

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 97.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$767.2

Total Shares805

Combined PnL+$167.77

Yes6 traders

Total Value$214.74

Total Shares4,295

Combined PnL-$95.52

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 90.5¢	$266.32	$279.65	+$13.33	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 88¢	$171.65	$185.25	+$13.6	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$120.02	$161.11	-$44.26	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 88.7¢	$98.48	$105.45	+$6.97	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
BU Burkilota1<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$87.5	$97.45	+$9.95	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$62.5	$57.03	+$120.14	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$31.32	$34.43	+$3.11	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$56.85	$21.87	-$45.7	55% 5019-4100 (9119)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yes	$16.21	$16.21	-$5.89	24% 111-350 (461)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$5.16	$8.47	+$3.3	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 87¢	$7.27	$7.94	+$0.67	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$8.88	$6.34	-$1.56	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.8	$0.75	-$1.42	73% 2906-1075 (3981)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$266.32

Value

$279.65

PnL

+$13.33

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

smallreceipt

Invested

$171.65

Value

$185.25

PnL

+$13.6

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.02

Value

$161.11

PnL

-$44.26

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

godblessme2026

Invested

$98.48

Value

$105.45

PnL

+$6.97

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

Burkilota1<$100

Invested

$87.5

Value

$97.45

PnL

+$9.95

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$62.5

Value

$57.03

PnL

+$120.14

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.32

Value

$34.43

PnL

+$3.11

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.85

Value

$21.87

PnL

-$45.7

Record

55%

5019-4100 (9119)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.21

Value

$16.21

PnL

-$5.89

Record

24%

111-350 (461)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$3.3

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

merod<$100

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.94

PnL

+$0.67

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.88

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$1.56

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$1.42

Record

73%

2906-1075 (3981)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.