Will Junts win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$248.89
-$5.88
87.2¢ → 84.9¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $79.16 | $76.1 | -$3.06 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $62.74 | $60.32 | -$2.42 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $51.16 | $53.13 | +$1.97 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $44.12 | $42.42 | -$1.7 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $17.58 | $16.92 | -$0.66 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.16
Value
$76.1
PnL
-$3.06
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$62.74
Value
$60.32
PnL
-$2.42
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$51.16
Value
$53.13
PnL
+$1.97
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$44.12
Value
$42.42
PnL
-$1.7
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$17.58
Value
$16.92
PnL
-$0.66
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.