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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 81¢ · $229 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$228.78
$2.52
76.9¢ → 81¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $86.94 | $91.89 | +$4.95 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $55.25 | $58.85 | +$3.6 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $64.8 | $42.26 | -$0 | 52% 33-31 (64) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $32.61 | $30.4 | -$2.21 | 13% 3-21 (24) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $13.2 | $5.38 | -$3.82 | 4% 1-26 (27) |
Invested
$86.94
Value
$91.89
PnL
+$4.95
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$55.25
Value
$58.85
PnL
+$3.6
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$64.8
Value
$42.26
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
33-31 (64)
Invested
$32.61
Value
$30.4
PnL
-$2.21
Record
13%
3-21 (24)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$3.82
Record
4%
1-26 (27)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.