Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jordan Love win the 2026 NFL MVP?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 15¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$772.6

Smart Money Entry

4¢ → 14.7¢

+272% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares10,384

Combined PnL+$772.6

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

618h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$465.31	$615.9	+$150.59	41% 3605-5119 (8724)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$104.76	$567.09	+$462.33	55% 1611-1330 (2941)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$2.1K	$428.07	+$88.3	32% 21174-45399 (66573)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.8¢	$321.39	$313.29	-$8.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.1¢	$18.33	$114.78	+$96.4
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$11.72	$64.24	+$52.52	38% 1798-2937 (4735)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$12.3	$61.08	+$48.78	57% 1137-873 (2010)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$5.59	$34.09	+$14.58	— 6-7 (13)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$272.29	$18.18	+$14.79	30% 35305-83677 (118982)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$224.12	$17.41	+$14.22	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$112	$13.32	+$11.01	49% 22834-23666 (46500)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$13.58	$12.88	-$0.71	38% 2888-4713 (7601)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$315.02	$2.86	+$2.33	55% 42139-34063 (76202)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$639.35	$2.65	+$2.14	27% 3481-9303 (12784)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$465.31

Value

$615.9

PnL

+$150.59

Record

41%

3605-5119 (8724)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.76

Value

$567.09

PnL

+$462.33

Record

55%

1611-1330 (2941)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$2,149.21

Value

$428.07

PnL

+$88.3

Record

32%

21174-45399 (66573)

Both legs:

Invested

$11.72

Value

$64.24

PnL

+$52.52

Record

38%

1798-2937 (4735)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.3

Value

$61.08

PnL

+$48.78

Record

57%

1137-873 (2010)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.59

Value

$34.09

PnL

+$14.58

Record

—

6-7 (13)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.29

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$14.79

Record

30%

35305-83677 (118982)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.12

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$14.22

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$112

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$11.01

Record

49%

22834-23666 (46500)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.58

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$0.71

Record

38%

2888-4713 (7601)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$315.02

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$2.33

Record

55%

42139-34063 (76202)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$639.35

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$2.14

Record

27%

3481-9303 (12784)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

618h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.4%

14.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$511.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

611.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.