Will Jordan Bardella win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 99¢ · $509 held · ends Apr 18, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Apr 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$509.19

Combined PnL

$32.21

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$508.32

Total Shares509

Combined PnL+$38.35

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.87

Total Shares581

Combined PnL-$6.13

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.8¢	$115.1	$115.17	+$0.07	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.5¢	$108.76	$99.12	+$0.36	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$99.38	$89.87	+$0.42	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$72.86	$59.91	+$0.05	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.8¢	$134.77	$59.91	+$37.39	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$50.15	$50.17	+$0.03	52% 6272-5822 (12094)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$27.32	$19.2	+$0.01	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	31% 3472-7762 (11234)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.99	+$0.02	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.1	$0.7	-$4.4	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	-$1.5	28% 479-1254 (1733)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.23	$0.03	-$0.2	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.05	$0.01	-$0.03	42% 5392-7314 (12706)

donthackme

Invested

$115.1

Value

$115.17

PnL

+$0.07

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

ghorrock

Invested

$108.76

Value

$99.12

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$99.38

Value

$89.87

PnL

+$0.42

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$72.86

Value

$59.91

PnL

+$0.05

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

smallreceipt

Invested

$134.77

Value

$59.91

PnL

+$37.39

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$50.15

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

6272-5822 (12094)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$27.32

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

3472-7762 (11234)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$4.4

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.5

Record

28%

479-1254 (1733)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.2

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.