Will Jordan Bardella win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $228 held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$228.06
-$2.15
98¢ → 97.4¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 41%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $55.49 | $54.53 | -$0.95 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $39.55 | $38.84 | -$0.71 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $39.52 | $38.84 | -$0.68 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $28.74 | $30.1 | +$1.36 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $29.61 | $29.13 | -$0.48 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.13 | -$0.54 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $7.63 | $7.49 | -$0.14 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
Invested
$55.49
Value
$54.53
PnL
-$0.95
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$39.55
Value
$38.84
PnL
-$0.71
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$39.52
Value
$38.84
PnL
-$0.68
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$28.74
Value
$30.1
PnL
+$1.36
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$29.61
Value
$29.13
PnL
-$0.48
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.13
PnL
-$0.54
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
balthazar<$100Invested
$7.63
Value
$7.49
PnL
-$0.14
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.