Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Indianapolis Colts?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 1.9¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$58.11
-$22.8
Research grade
AvoidNo at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robbb<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $57.4 | $57.53 | +$0.12 | — 1-0 (1) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.9¢ | $8.96 | $0.26 | -$8.71 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.2¢ | $6.41 | $0.21 | -$6.2 | 17% 49-241 (290) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $6.51 | $0.06 | -$6.45 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.9¢ | $0.54 | $0.03 | -$0.51 | 26% 1205-3516 (4721) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $1.08 | $0.02 | -$1.06 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
Robbb<$100Invested
$57.4
Value
$57.53
PnL
+$0.12
Record
—
1-0 (1)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.96
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$8.71
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$6.2
Record
17%
49-241 (290)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$6.45
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.51
Record
26%
1205-3516 (4721)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.06
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.