Will Jonah Alben be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$855.03

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 99.6¢

+69% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$870.91

Total Shares1,742

Combined PnL+$854.69

No4 traders

Total Value$146.12

Total Shares246

Combined PnL+$0.34

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.81	$355.5	+$347.85	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$350.21	+$343.66	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$101.44	$123.9	+$22.46	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.52	$84.7	+$84.18	12% 34-257 (291)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.44	$77	+$75.56	43% 16-21 (37)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$26.32	$13.2	-$13.12	49% 471-500 (971)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.97	$6.5	-$6.47	42% 814-1136 (1950)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$3.5	+$3.43	35% 512-942 (1454)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.05	$2.53	-$2.52	63% 451-268 (719)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$355.5

PnL

+$347.85

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$350.21

PnL

+$343.66

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$101.44

Value

$123.9

PnL

+$22.46

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$84.7

PnL

+$84.18

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$77

PnL

+$75.56

Record

43%

16-21 (37)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$26.32

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$13.12

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.97

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$6.47

Record

42%

814-1136 (1950)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$3.43

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$2.52

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.