Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$93.1

Smart Money Entry

10.5¢ → 30.3¢

+189% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$280.18

Total Shares1,288

Combined PnL-$37.11

No5 traders

Total Value$300.92

Total Shares389

Combined PnL+$130.21

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mr.oziARB<$100	Yesavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$27.89	69% 1230-562 (1792)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.6¢	$466	$782.5	+$316.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.7¢	$586.47	$242.08	-$344.39
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.84	$225.81	+$40.76	18% 3780-17066 (20846)
BiDiFakePollsARB<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$332.13	$132.88	-$71.06	58% 172-124 (296)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.8¢	$156.33	$74.19	-$64.58
└ No leg	Noavg 86.9¢	$65.18	$58.69	-$6.49
12 123987456	Noavg 47.7¢	$61.78	$101.33	+$39.55	45% 1814-2260 (4074)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 84.5¢	$106.27	$84.47	-$14.36	60% 3234-2167 (5401)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.8¢	$411.34	$59.45	+$84.36	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
qizhanCTR	Yesavg 52.9¢	$132.25	$54.37	-$77.87	— 4-3 (7)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 47.2¢	$136.72	$37.66	+$14.16	53% 6286-5517 (11803)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 50¢	$11.5	$18	+$6.5	54% 3678-3196 (6874)

mr.oziARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,052.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$27.89

Record

69%

1230-562 (1792)

Both legs:

No$46646.6¢+$316.5

Yes$586.4752.7¢-$344.39

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$225.81

PnL

+$40.76

Record

18%

3780-17066 (20846)

BiDiFakePollsARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$332.13

Value

$132.88

PnL

-$71.06

Record

58%

172-124 (296)

Both legs:

Yes$156.3345.8¢-$64.58

No$65.1886.9¢-$6.49

123987456

Invested

$61.78

Value

$101.33

PnL

+$39.55

Record

45%

1814-2260 (4074)

shiifoo

Invested

$106.27

Value

$84.47

PnL

-$14.36

Record

60%

3234-2167 (5401)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$411.34

Value

$59.45

PnL

+$84.36

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

qizhanCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.25

Value

$54.37

PnL

-$77.87

Record

—

4-3 (7)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$136.72

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$14.16

Record

53%

6286-5517 (11803)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$18

PnL

+$6.5

Record

54%

3678-3196 (6874)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.4%

30.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$218.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

319.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.