Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Johny Srouji be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 9.6¢ · $301 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$300.53

Combined PnL

$207.05

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$261.83

Total Shares5,134

Combined PnL+$188.5

No2 traders

Total Value$38.7

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$18.55

Yes — 85%No — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TY TyatsmrCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$42.25	$92.21	+$49.97	— 4-0 (4)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$54.43	+$44.45	— 4-0 (4)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.35	$45.57	+$37.22	40% 3331-4967 (8298)
TBill1<$100	Noavg 85¢	$32.63	$34.7	+$2.07	3% 3-109 (112)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.69	$25.6	+$20.91	46% 25-29 (54)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$12.75	+$10.41	0% 0-98 (98)
FL FlobodanCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$12.75	+$10.41	— 2-5 (7)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$5.35	+$4.37	58% 539-397 (936)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.85	$4.64	+$3.79	18% 822-3658 (4480)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$4.08	+$3.33	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$4.08	+$3.33	— 10-1 (11)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$13.43	$4	+$16.48	52% 1618-1495 (3113)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.36	+$0.29	32% 557-1179 (1736)

TyatsmrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.25

Value

$92.21

PnL

+$49.97

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$54.43

PnL

+$44.45

Record

—

4-0 (4)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.35

Value

$45.57

PnL

+$37.22

Record

40%

3331-4967 (8298)

TBill1<$100

Invested

$32.63

Value

$34.7

PnL

+$2.07

Record

3-109 (112)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.69

Value

$25.6

PnL

+$20.91

Record

46%

25-29 (54)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$10.41

Record

0-98 (98)

FlobodanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$10.41

Record

—

2-5 (7)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$4.37

Record

58%

539-397 (936)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$3.79

Record

18%

822-3658 (4480)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$3.33

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$3.33

Record

—

10-1 (11)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$13.43

Value

PnL

+$16.48

Record

52%

1618-1495 (3113)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.29

Record

32%

557-1179 (1736)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$810.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

910.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.