Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 82¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 29

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$625.73

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 81.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares6,364

Combined PnL+$194.31

No9 traders

Total Value$483.98

Total Shares2,653

Combined PnL+$431.41

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

653h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 81¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	+$19.61	56% 15581-12206 (27787)
december	Yesavg 81.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$47.5	83% 129-27 (156)
LinaBell	Yesavg 66.6¢	$435.19	$562.39	+$127.2	64% 1199-680 (1879)
LP lpgbCTR	Noavg 19.5¢	$360.75	$227.93	-$25.64	25% 292-899 (1191)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 20.8¢	$225.88	$78.3	+$49.64	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$79.35	$71	-$8.35	43% 3626-4891 (8517)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$58.89	$42.24	-$16.65	59% 10624-7238 (17862)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 18.4¢	$56.97	$42.18	-$0.69	30% 2226-5258 (7484)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$18.22	$11.82	-$6.39	74% 12143-4275 (16418)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 6.5¢	$19.62	$6.8	+$439.4	52% 9032-8335 (17367)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	No	$3.5	$3.5	+$0.1	38% 913-1487 (2400)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 18.1¢	$0.22	$0.21	-$0.01	17% 231-1090 (1321)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$3,371.78

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$19.61

Record

56%

15581-12206 (27787)

december

Yes

Invested

$1,219.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$47.5

Record

83%

129-27 (156)

LinaBell

Yes

Invested

$435.19

Value

$562.39

PnL

+$127.2

Record

64%

1199-680 (1879)

lpgbCTR

Invested

$360.75

Value

$227.93

PnL

-$25.64

Record

25%

292-899 (1191)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$225.88

Value

$78.3

PnL

+$49.64

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$79.35

Value

$71

PnL

-$8.35

Record

43%

3626-4891 (8517)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$58.89

Value

$42.24

PnL

-$16.65

Record

59%

10624-7238 (17862)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$56.97

Value

$42.18

PnL

-$0.69

Record

30%

2226-5258 (7484)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$6.39

Record

74%

12143-4275 (16418)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$439.4

Record

52%

9032-8335 (17367)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

913-1487 (2400)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

231-1090 (1321)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

653h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.1%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.