Will John Turturro win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $877 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$876.71
$35.97
99.3¢ → 98.6¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.5¢ | $264.47 | $260.29 | +$39.08 | 73% 12946-4868 (17814) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.7¢ | $190.84 | $188.82 | -$1.9 | 58% 20160-14785 (34945) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.7¢ | $130.67 | $129.3 | -$1.37 | 49% 8939-9446 (18385) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $98.28 | $98.7 | +$0.42 | 53% 23002-20232 (43234) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $82.86 | $82.79 | -$0.07 | 49% 752-789 (1541) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $55.83 | $55.76 | -$0.07 | 51% 3739-3587 (7326) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $49.38 | $49.35 | -$0.03 | 44% 2220-2864 (5084) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $11.79 | $11.71 | -$0.08 | 35% 18692-34699 (53391) |
Invested
$264.47
Value
$260.29
PnL
+$39.08
Record
73%
12946-4868 (17814)
Invested
$190.84
Value
$188.82
PnL
-$1.9
Record
58%
20160-14785 (34945)
Invested
$130.67
Value
$129.3
PnL
-$1.37
Record
49%
8939-9446 (18385)
Invested
$98.28
Value
$98.7
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
23002-20232 (43234)
Invested
$82.86
Value
$82.79
PnL
-$0.07
Record
49%
752-789 (1541)
Invested
$55.83
Value
$55.76
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
3739-3587 (7326)
Invested
$49.38
Value
$49.35
PnL
-$0.03
Record
44%
2220-2864 (5084)
Invested
$11.79
Value
$11.71
PnL
-$0.08
Record
35%
18692-34699 (53391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.