Will John Turturro be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 55¢ · $40 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$39.68
$0.28
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU buoys<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $22.46 | $23.31 | +$0.85 | — 0-11 (11) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $11 | -$0.4 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.5 | -$0.2 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $0.84 | $0.87 | +$0.03 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$22.46
Value
$23.31
PnL
+$0.85
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.87
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.