Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 44¢ · $203 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$202.75
$7.26
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 44.1¢ | $545.46 | $97.41 | +$48.55 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.1¢ | $63.94 | $63.78 | +$27.04 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $27.97 | $33.64 | +$21.51 | |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $65.12 | $67.25 | +$10.78 | 52% 242-226 (468) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $24 | $24 | +$0 | 18% 333-1526 (1859) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $17.6 | $14.08 | -$3.52 | 49% 8797-9307 (18104) |
Invested
$545.46
Value
$97.41
PnL
+$48.55
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.12
Value
$67.25
PnL
+$10.78
Record
52%
242-226 (468)
Invested
$24
Value
$24
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
333-1526 (1859)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$14.08
PnL
-$3.52
Record
49%
8797-9307 (18104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.