Will John Ratcliffe be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 94¢ · $64 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$63.72
-$0.13
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $28.62 | $28.07 | -$0.55 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $45.04 | $13.25 | +$1.62 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $9.97 | $9.78 | -$0.19 | 28% 109-285 (394) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $7.97 | $7.63 | -$0.34 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $4.3 | $3.69 | -$0.6 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.35 | $1.3 | -$0.06 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
Invested
$28.62
Value
$28.07
PnL
-$0.55
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$45.04
Value
$13.25
PnL
+$1.62
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.78
PnL
-$0.19
Record
28%
109-285 (394)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.97
Value
$7.63
PnL
-$0.34
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$3.69
PnL
-$0.6
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.06
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.