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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?

Resolved No. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Yes 67%

Total Value

$10

Combined PnL

-$18.22

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders
Total Value$10
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$0.78
Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares120
Combined PnL-$17.43
No — 27%Yes — 73%
RL
RLWG<$100
No

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

7801-7821 (15622)

paddaaCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$15.44

Value

—

PnL

-$15.44

Record

57%

823-628 (1451)

AM
AmericaFirst1CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

—

PnL

-$1.99

Record

62%

2184-1323 (3507)

0X
0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

50-68 (118)

EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

11174-3429 (14603)

FrozenParasiteCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

453-367 (820)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15281-11831 (27112)

IstarothCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

295-1083 (1378)

XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

15244-27336 (42580)

2B9SCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

3793-17172 (20965)

SN
SnapElectionAvoider<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1124-1007 (2131)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x62308d12...2dd13f
Slug
will-john-kelly-win-the-2026-hobart-mayoral-election

Traders in this Market

RL

RLWG

No — $10

-$0.78

paddaa

CTR

Yes — $0

-$15.44
AM

AmericaFirst1

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.99
0X

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

No — $0

+$0
EL

Elias.Thornwell

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

FrozenParasite

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

Istaroth

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

2B9S

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
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