Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 19

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.3

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,356

Combined PnL+$100.66

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$113.96

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 97.9¢	$826.21	$843.85	+$17.64	48% 7185-7873 (15058)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 89¢	$348.63	$391.42	+$42.79	61% 16009-10298 (26307)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 97.9¢	$340.67	$347.83	+$7.15	51% 3739-3587 (7326)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 97.8¢	$244.5	$249.88	+$5.38	45% 2849-3477 (6326)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$98.9	$98.95	+$0.05	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.18	$80.22	+$0.04	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$48.48	$69.86	+$21.38	73% 12946-4868 (17814)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$58.22	$58.85	+$0.63	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$48.4	$53.97	+$5.57	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$20.07	$20.12	+$0.05	40% 300-442 (742)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$10.04	-$0.26	42% 3184-4360 (7544)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$9.82	$10	+$0.18	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR	Yesavg 59.4¢	$122.68	$0.1	-$122.58	67% 645-322 (967)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$1.27	50% 2467-2424 (4891)
MI mildwindow27CTR	Yes	$135.86	$0.02	+$9.72	47% 8454-9632 (18086)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.5¢	$14.69	$0	+$0.17	54% 1845-1583 (3428)

Gaditima

Invested

$826.21

Value

$843.85

PnL

+$17.64

Record

48%

7185-7873 (15058)

northdrawer

Invested

$348.63

Value

$391.42

PnL

+$42.79

Record

61%

16009-10298 (26307)

haveagoodday

Invested

$340.67

Value

$347.83

PnL

+$7.15

Record

51%

3739-3587 (7326)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$244.5

Value

$249.88

PnL

+$5.38

Record

45%

2849-3477 (6326)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

korda77<$100

Invested

$98.9

Value

$98.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$80.18

Value

$80.22

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$48.48

Value

$69.86

PnL

+$21.38

Record

73%

12946-4868 (17814)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$58.22

Value

$58.85

PnL

+$0.63

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$48.4

Value

$53.97

PnL

+$5.57

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$20.07

Value

$20.12

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

300-442 (742)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.26

Record

42%

3184-4360 (7544)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.68

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$122.58

Record

67%

645-322 (967)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.27

Record

50%

2467-2424 (4891)

mildwindow27CTR

Yes

Invested

$135.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$9.72

Record

47%

8454-9632 (18086)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.69

Value

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

1845-1583 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.