Will Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$2.4K
-$139.77
77.8¢ → 81.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
525h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$17.03 | 71% 60-24 (84) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 74.9¢ | $1.2K | $854.68 | -$24.17 | 35% 17563-32834 (50397) |
ME melonmanmCTR | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $294.02 | $263.72 | -$30.3 | 66% 570-300 (870) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $108.33 | $111.2 | +$2.87 | 57% 195-145 (340) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $114.06 | $99.53 | -$35.59 | 50% 1695-1681 (3376) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $50.4 | $16.65 | -$35.55 | 50% 1249-1274 (2523) |
Invested
$1,120.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$17.03
Record
71%
60-24 (84)
Invested
$1,193.71
Value
$854.68
PnL
-$24.17
Record
35%
17563-32834 (50397)
Invested
$294.02
Value
$263.72
PnL
-$30.3
Record
66%
570-300 (870)
BiDiFakePollsCTRInvested
$108.33
Value
$111.2
PnL
+$2.87
Record
57%
195-145 (340)
Invested
$114.06
Value
$99.53
PnL
-$35.59
Record
50%
1695-1681 (3376)
Invested
$50.4
Value
$16.65
PnL
-$35.55
Record
50%
1249-1274 (2523)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.