Will "Jigga What, Jigga Who" be played first at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.5K
$21.61
86.1¢ → 93.8¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 85.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$9.14 | 66% 4097-2123 (6220) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $12 | $27 | +$15 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $19.34 | $17.39 | -$1.95 | 54% 30-26 (56) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $4.78 | $4.33 | -$0.46 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $1.04 | $0.91 | -$0.13 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
Invested
$1,393.37
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$9.14
Record
66%
4097-2123 (6220)
Invested
$12
Value
$27
PnL
+$15
Record
41%
3104-4461 (7565)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$19.34
Value
$17.39
PnL
-$1.95
Record
54%
30-26 (56)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.78
Value
$4.33
PnL
-$0.46
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$0.13
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.