Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 88¢ · $557 held · ends Nov 29

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$557

Combined PnL

-$9.69

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 88¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$548.46

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$5.01

No2 traders

Total Value$8.85

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$14.69

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 68.5¢	$558.45	$538.99	+$4.4	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$5.16	$5.39	+$0.23	77% 11143-3403 (14546)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$17.55	$5.15	-$12.39	42% 5200-7124 (12324)
GG GGLPL<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$3.7	$4.07	+$0.37	50% 674-667 (1341)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6	$3.7	-$2.3	18% 3784-17100 (20884)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$558.45

Value

$538.99

PnL

+$4.4

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$0.23

Record

77%

11143-3403 (14546)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$17.55

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$12.39

Record

42%

5200-7124 (12324)

GGLPL<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

674-667 (1341)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$2.3

Record

18%

3784-17100 (20884)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.