Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2027?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$76.35

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 69.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,725

Combined PnL-$72.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.63

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$3.91

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 69.6¢	$623.53	$618.59	-$4.94	72% 1118-425 (1543)
kekkone	Noavg 69.8¢	$453.41	$448.41	-$5	— 2-0 (2)
D8 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935	Noavg 69¢	$206.99	$208.49	+$1.5	— 11-1 (12)
GD Gdub	Noavg 86¢	$258	$207	-$51	— 3-7 (10)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 69¢	$137.99	$138.99	+$1	48% 1236-1320 (2556)
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 75¢	$150	$138	-$12	2% 1-52 (53)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 69¢	$109.37	$110.17	+$0.79	8% 10-111 (121)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.9¢	$55.56	$30.99	-$4.57	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 83¢	$16.6	$13.8	-$2.8	40% 10-15 (25)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$45.13	$0.64	+$0.67	30% 108-251 (359)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$623.53

Value

$618.59

PnL

-$4.94

Record

72%

1118-425 (1543)

kekkone

Invested

$453.41

Value

$448.41

PnL

-$5

Record

—

2-0 (2)

D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935

Invested

$206.99

Value

$208.49

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

11-1 (12)

Gdub

Invested

$258

Value

$207

PnL

-$51

Record

—

3-7 (10)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$137.99

Value

$138.99

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

1236-1320 (2556)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$150

Value

$138

PnL

-$12

Record

1-52 (53)

melonmanm

Invested

$109.37

Value

$110.17

PnL

+$0.79

Record

10-111 (121)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.56

Value

$30.99

PnL

-$4.57

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$2.8

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.13

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.67

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.3%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.