Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $30K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

-$211.92

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 92.7¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$28.7K

Total Shares31,053

Combined PnL-$122.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$629.42

Total Shares10,298

Combined PnL-$89.15

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 92.7¢	$20.3K	$20.3K	+$1.56	72% 1118-425 (1543)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 94.1¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$59.1	51% 74-71 (145)
D8 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935	Noavg 91.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$7.07	— 11-1 (12)
Sardinianshepherd	Noavg 93.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$48	4% 3-65 (68)
Dr.mett	Noavg 95.6¢	$500.11	$475.87	-$24.25	— 11-2 (13)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$443.58	$421.83	+$30.15	41% 27-39 (66)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.8¢	$300.14	$303.13	-$18.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.7¢	$93.41	$118.7	+$48.51
LolakisCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$360.44	$366.9	+$6.46	18% 7-32 (39)
eightpenguinsCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$314.62	$220.88	-$93.74	— 4-0 (4)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 91¢	$182.96	$182.91	-$0.05	8% 10-111 (121)
EuanCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$39.91	$36.05	-$3.86	— 3-9 (12)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$3.61	$5.59	+$1.99	39% 3479-5356 (8835)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$20,300.19

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$1.56

Record

72%

1118-425 (1543)

Paul973973

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$59.1

Record

51%

74-71 (145)

D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935

Invested

$2,002.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$7.07

Record

—

11-1 (12)

Sardinianshepherd

Invested

$1,868

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$48

Record

3-65 (68)

Dr.mett

Invested

$500.11

Value

$475.87

PnL

-$24.25

Record

—

11-2 (13)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100

Invested

$443.58

Value

$421.83

PnL

+$30.15

Record

41%

27-39 (66)

Both legs:

No$300.1491.8¢-$18.36

Yes$93.415.7¢+$48.51

LolakisCTR

Yes

Invested

$360.44

Value

$366.9

PnL

+$6.46

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

eightpenguinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$314.62

Value

$220.88

PnL

-$93.74

Record

—

4-0 (4)

melonmanm

Invested

$182.96

Value

$182.91

PnL

-$0.05

Record

10-111 (121)

EuanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.91

Value

$36.05

PnL

-$3.86

Record

—

3-9 (12)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.61

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$1.99

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.