Will Jensen Huang publicly testify before Congress by March 31, 2027?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$39.33

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 64.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$842.7

Total Shares1,239

Combined PnL+$85.76

No5 traders

Total Value$426.7

Total Shares1,349

Combined PnL-$46.44

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TheOneto3	Yesavg 56.9¢	$494.73	$591.05	+$96.32	— 1-1 (2)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 68¢	$150.28	$150.28	+$0	50% 17-17 (34)
FL FlobodanCTR	Noavg 39.2¢	$171.52	$133.33	-$38.19	— 9-6 (15)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 27¢	$112.41	$126.98	+$14.57	46% 465-547 (1012)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$88	$61	-$27	48% 1239-1325 (2564)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$79.73	$57.9	-$21.83	30% 251-582 (833)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$93.8	$49.64	-$11.22	15% 28-161 (189)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 23¢	$163.73	$47.48	+$26.01	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 54¢	$136.62	$29.24	+$1.33	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$51.85	$22.49	-$0.66	17% 29-146 (175)

TheOneto3

Yes

Invested

$494.73

Value

$591.05

PnL

+$96.32

Record

—

1-1 (2)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$150.28

Value

$150.28

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

17-17 (34)

FlobodanCTR

Invested

$171.52

Value

$133.33

PnL

-$38.19

Record

—

9-6 (15)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$112.41

Value

$126.98

PnL

+$14.57

Record

46%

465-547 (1012)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

$88

Value

$61

PnL

-$27

Record

48%

1239-1325 (2564)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$79.73

Value

$57.9

PnL

-$21.83

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.8

Value

$49.64

PnL

-$11.22

Record

15%

28-161 (189)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$163.73

Value

$47.48

PnL

+$26.01

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$136.62

Value

$29.24

PnL

+$1.33

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.85

Value

$22.49

PnL

-$0.66

Record

17%

29-146 (175)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.4%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.