Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Jensen Huang publicly testify before Congress by December 31, 2026?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 49¢ · $942 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$942.2

Combined PnL

-$28.54

Smart Money Entry

33.5¢ → 49¢

+46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$464.7

Total Shares1,299

Combined PnL+$13.61

No7 traders

Total Value$477.5

Total Shares920

Combined PnL-$42.14

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TheOneto3CTR	Yesavg 35.7¢	$301.21	$299.15	-$2.05	— 1-1 (2)
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 55¢	$189.18	$178.96	-$10.22	2% 1-52 (53)
WA wahmanmarketCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$123	$152.95	+$29.95	— 3-2 (5)
NE Newshound	Noavg 65¢	$130	$104	-$26	1% 2-162 (164)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$72.55	$74.36	+$1.81	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
ME melonmanm<$100	Noavg 50¢	$52.31	$53.36	+$1.05	8% 10-112 (122)
FL Flobodan<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$55.53	$39.78	-$1.98	— 2-5 (7)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 64¢	$26.95	$14.04	-$3.35	13% 13-84 (97)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$25.84	$13	-$3.45	40% 10-15 (25)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 44.7¢	$160.47	$12.59	-$14.29	39% 3489-5413 (8902)

TheOneto3CTR

Yes

Invested

$301.21

Value

$299.15

PnL

-$2.05

Record

—

1-1 (2)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$189.18

Value

$178.96

PnL

-$10.22

Record

1-52 (53)

wahmanmarketCTR

Yes

Invested

$123

Value

$152.95

PnL

+$29.95

Record

—

3-2 (5)

Newshound

Invested

$130

Value

$104

PnL

-$26

Record

2-162 (164)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$72.55

Value

$74.36

PnL

+$1.81

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

melonmanm<$100

Invested

$52.31

Value

$53.36

PnL

+$1.05

Record

10-112 (122)

Flobodan<$100

Invested

$55.53

Value

$39.78

PnL

-$1.98

Record

—

2-5 (7)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$26.95

Value

$14.04

PnL

-$3.35

Record

13%

13-84 (97)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$25.84

Value

$13

PnL

-$3.45

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.47

Value

$12.59

PnL

-$14.29

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.0%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$96.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

196.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.