Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jensen Huang post again on X by November 15?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 12¢ · $327 held · ends Nov 16

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$326.7

Combined PnL

$59.18

Smart Money Entry

7.6¢ → 11.5¢

+52% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$277.1

Total Shares2,465

Combined PnL+$77.63

No1 trader

Total Value$49.59

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$18.45

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$128.1	$230.22	+$102.11	— 7-11 (18)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 93¢	$81.13	$49.59	-$18.45	31% 114-255 (369)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$30	$22	-$8	1% 4-423 (427)
TruongMyLanCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$11.73	$13.04	+$1.3	— 1-0 (1)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$9.35	$5.5	-$3.85	23% 515-1704 (2219)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$3.89	$4.22	+$0.33	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.4	$2	-$1.4	13% 13-84 (97)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$24.48	$0.13	-$12.87	40% 10-15 (25)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$128.1

Value

$230.22

PnL

+$102.11

Record

—

7-11 (18)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$81.13

Value

$49.59

PnL

-$18.45

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$22

PnL

-$8

Record

4-423 (427)

TruongMyLanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.73

Value

$13.04

PnL

+$1.3

Record

—

1-0 (1)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.35

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$3.85

Record

23%

515-1704 (2219)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.33

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

PnL

-$1.4

Record

13%

13-84 (97)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.48

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$12.87

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.