Will Jensen Huang join TSMC next?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 97¢ · $166 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$166.17

Combined PnL

$13.56

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 96.8¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$123.52

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$2.9

Yes4 traders

Total Value$42.62

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL+$10.66

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$72.05	$74.7	+$2.65	33% 286-585 (871)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$27.39	$37.88	+$10.49	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$32.36	$31.75	-$0.6	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.7	$9.96	+$0.26	31% 1085-2425 (3510)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.93	$4.91	-$0.01	49% 849-871 (1720)
Optimus-CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$2.11	$2.99	+$0.88	35% 7-13 (20)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 72¢	$1.58	$2.19	+$0.61	17% 92-443 (535)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$71.81	$1.06	-$0.97	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.43	$0.69	+$0.26	31% 229-507 (736)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$72.05

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$2.65

Record

33%

286-585 (871)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.39

Value

$37.88

PnL

+$10.49

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.36

Value

$31.75

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.26

Record

31%

1085-2425 (3510)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

Optimus-CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.88

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

merod<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.61

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.81

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.97

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.69

PnL

+$0.26

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.