Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX next?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $271 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$271.14

Combined PnL

$88.75

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 86¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$229.69

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$28.67

Yes3 traders

Total Value$41.41

Total Shares289

Combined PnL+$60.08

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Noavg 62.1¢	$90.51	$116.67	+$26.17	10% 12-114 (126)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84¢	$42	$42.25	+$0.25	65% 4350-2373 (6723)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$263.32	$37.88	+$42.35	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$42.28	$32	+$0.02	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 73¢	$23.96	$26.26	+$2.29	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.45	+$0.05	36% 286-506 (792)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.17	$4.06	-$0.1	58% 820-591 (1411)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$46.33	$3.04	+$17.69	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$30.04	$0.49	+$0.05	17% 29-146 (175)

melonmanm

Invested

$90.51

Value

$116.67

PnL

+$26.17

Record

10%

12-114 (126)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$263.32

Value

$37.88

PnL

+$42.35

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$42.28

Value

$32

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.96

Value

$26.26

PnL

+$2.29

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.33

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$17.69

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.04

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0.05

Record

17%

29-146 (175)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.