Will Jensen Huang join Meta next?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $111 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$110.95

Combined PnL

-$24.43

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$106.52

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.43

Total Shares984

Combined PnL-$24.37

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.82	-$0.14	33% 286-585 (871)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$38.8	$38.84	+$0.04	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.79	$12.81	+$0.01	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.99	+$0.04	38% 289-472 (761)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.07	$5.06	-$0.02	60% 796-535 (1331)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$25.23	$4.12	-$21.11	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$72.02	$0.15	-$2.47	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.53	$0.09	-$0.44	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.43	$0.07	-$0.35	31% 229-507 (736)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.82

PnL

-$0.14

Record

33%

286-585 (871)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$38.8

Value

$38.84

PnL

+$0.04

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.79

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

38%

289-472 (761)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.23

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$21.11

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.02

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.47

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.44

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.