Will Jensen Huang join Anthropic or OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$18.51

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 96.7¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL+$20.58

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.43

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$2.07

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GD Gdub	Noavg 96.3¢	$429.03	$390.57	+$1.92	— 1-5 (6)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 90.9¢	$362.84	$381.88	+$19.05	72% 1113-423 (1536)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 95.7¢	$176.04	$177.79	+$1.75	3% 3-109 (112)
TH thoodr<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$38.52	$38.28	-$0.24	95% 317-18 (335)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.71	$9.67	-$0.04	82% 31-7 (38)
vinii<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$12.54	$9.66	-$1.85	— 7-1 (8)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$3.06	$1.4	-$1.66	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.44	$1.03	-$0.41	— 6-5 (11)

Gdub

Invested

$429.03

Value

$390.57

PnL

+$1.92

Record

—

1-5 (6)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$362.84

Value

$381.88

PnL

+$19.05

Record

72%

1113-423 (1536)

melonmanm

Invested

$176.04

Value

$177.79

PnL

+$1.75

Record

3-109 (112)

thoodr<$100

Invested

$38.52

Value

$38.28

PnL

-$0.24

Record

95%

317-18 (335)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$0.04

Record

82%

31-7 (38)

vinii<$100

Invested

$12.54

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$1.85

Record

—

7-1 (8)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$1.66

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

6-5 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.