Will Jensen Huang join a new company by December 31, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$2.8K
-$58.67
89.3¢ → 87.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP SPLPB | Noavg 89¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$26.12 | 23% 511-1699 (2210) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 89¢ | $760.06 | $708.66 | -$16.69 | 2% 1-59 (60) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 90¢ | $630 | $616 | -$14 | 95% 317-18 (335) |
 TBill1 | Noavg 90¢ | $180 | $176 | -$4 | 0% 0-106 (106) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 90¢ | $145.8 | $140.94 | -$4.86 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $6.16 | $10.01 | +$3.85 | 40% 3214-4824 (8038) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $27.99 | $5.23 | +$2.25 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $3.01 | $3.91 | +$0.9 | — 3-4 (7) |
Invested
$1,162.34
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$26.12
Record
23%
511-1699 (2210)
Invested
$760.06
Value
$708.66
PnL
-$16.69
Record
2%
1-59 (60)
Invested
$630
Value
$616
PnL
-$14
Record
95%
317-18 (335)
TBill1Invested
$180
Value
$176
PnL
-$4
Record
0%
0-106 (106)
HaradwaithInvested
$145.8
Value
$140.94
PnL
-$4.86
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$3.85
Record
40%
3214-4824 (8038)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$27.99
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$2.25
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$0.9
Record
—
3-4 (7)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.