Will Jensen Huang be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 61¢ · $27K held · ends Dec 31

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

-$564.85

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 60.5¢

-18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares26,826

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares30,176

Combined PnL+$3.0K

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 73.6¢	$18.4K	$15.1K	$-3.3K	47% 226-251 (477)
WickierCTR	Yesavg 22.5¢	$3.7K	$5.9K	+$2.2K	—
betwickCTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$4.0K	$4.6K	+$593.12	4% 2-46 (48)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 77.2¢	$769.57	$618.1	-$151.48	0% 0-70 (70)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$198.2	$360	+$161.8	58% 26-19 (45)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 75.7¢	$257.97	$199.02	-$43.47	41% 27-39 (66)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 67.2¢	$214.95	$192.09	-$16.76	65% 4263-2287 (6550)
Haradwaith	Noavg 84¢	$268.89	$125.97	-$43.82	31% 114-255 (369)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$155.21	$67.76	+$0.89	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$33.6	$37.8	+$34.17
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$39.63	$29.96	-$33.28
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$54.1	$14.4	+$10.3	13% 65-441 (506)

Gaditima

Invested

$18,408.74

Value

$15.1K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

WickierCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,677.55

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

—

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,006.28

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$593.12

Record

2-46 (48)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$769.57

Value

$618.1

PnL

-$151.48

Record

0-70 (70)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR

Yes

Invested

$198.2

Value

$360

PnL

+$161.8

Record

58%

26-19 (45)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$257.97

Value

$199.02

PnL

-$43.47

Record

41%

27-39 (66)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$214.95

Value

$192.09

PnL

-$16.76

Record

65%

4263-2287 (6550)

Haradwaith

Invested

$268.89

Value

$125.97

PnL

-$43.82

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$155.21

Value

$67.76

PnL

+$0.89

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

Both legs:

Yes$33.632¢+$34.17

No$39.6382¢-$33.28

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.1

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$10.3

Record

13%

65-441 (506)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.4%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.