Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 18, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, Apr 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$43.3

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 91.3¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,196

Combined PnL+$3.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$66.13

Total Shares642

Combined PnL+$39.32

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

538h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 92.7¢	$328.14	$327.25	-$0.34	14% 461-2758 (3219)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 91.5¢	$572.64	$221.26	+$13.86	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.2¢	$165.24	$154.09	-$11.16	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 89.5¢	$143.2	$143.52	+$0.38	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$92.74	$89.7	-$1.79	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$92.8	$89.7	-$3.1	44% 2192-2843 (5035)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$77.95	$76.25	-$1.7	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$21.61	$58.63	+$37.02	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$23.97	$21.26	+$7.92	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$4.43	$7.21	+$2.12	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98¢	$1.16	$1.06	-$0.1	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.29	$0.29	+$0.19	61% 14874-9334 (24208)

Istaroth

Invested

$328.14

Value

$327.25

PnL

-$0.34

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$572.64

Value

$221.26

PnL

+$13.86

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$165.24

Value

$154.09

PnL

-$11.16

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

godblessme2026

Invested

$143.2

Value

$143.52

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$92.74

Value

$89.7

PnL

-$1.79

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

123987456<$100

Invested

$92.8

Value

$89.7

PnL

-$3.1

Record

44%

2192-2843 (5035)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$77.95

Value

$76.25

PnL

-$1.7

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.61

Value

$58.63

PnL

+$37.02

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$23.97

Value

$21.26

PnL

+$7.92

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$7.21

PnL

+$2.12

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.19

Record

61%

14874-9334 (24208)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

538h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.5%

91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.