Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$322.64
$2.66
92¢ → 95.9¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
157h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robbb<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $84.92 | $88.83 | +$6.32 | 78% 2527-701 (3228) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $75.18 | $77.24 | +$2.06 | 57% 41574-31333 (72907) |
GL gloriafosterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $50 | $65 | -$6.5 | 33% 107-222 (329) |
LA lastminwin<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $53.87 | $51.55 | +$0.92 | 50% 14-14 (28) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $36.15 | $36.59 | +$0.43 | 41% 3647-5210 (8857) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.99 | $3.43 | -$0.56 | 53% 3355-3003 (6358) |
Robbb<$100Invested
$84.92
Value
$88.83
PnL
+$6.32
Record
78%
2527-701 (3228)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$75.18
Value
$77.24
PnL
+$2.06
Record
57%
41574-31333 (72907)
Invested
$50
Value
$65
PnL
-$6.5
Record
33%
107-222 (329)
Invested
$53.87
Value
$51.55
PnL
+$0.92
Record
50%
14-14 (28)
Invested
$36.15
Value
$36.59
PnL
+$0.43
Record
41%
3647-5210 (8857)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
3355-3003 (6358)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.