Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jay Puri be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 21¢ · $107 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$107.04
-$18.74
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $65.29 | $59.64 | -$0.86 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76¢ | $30.23 | $31.43 | +$1.19 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $30.52 | $28.21 | -$2.05 | |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.6¢ | $87.41 | $13.12 | -$16.02 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $12 | $10.08 | -$1.92 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $4.8 | $4.2 | -$0.6 | — 1-18 (19) |
Invested
$65.29
Value
$59.64
PnL
-$0.86
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$87.41
Value
$13.12
PnL
-$16.02
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$10.08
PnL
-$1.92
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.