Will Jay Clayton be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $50 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$50.27
-$0.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $40.09 | $39.63 | -$0.46 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $7.95 | $7.88 | -$0.07 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.48 | $1.35 | -$0.13 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.36 | $1.34 | -$0.02 | 79% 159-42 (201) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.02 | $0.08 | +$0.06 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
Invested
$40.09
Value
$39.63
PnL
-$0.46
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.95
Value
$7.88
PnL
-$0.07
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.13
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$1.34
PnL
-$0.02
Record
79%
159-42 (201)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.06
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.