Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 82¢ · $439 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$438.55
-$10.41
81¢ → 81.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 81¢ | $161.99 | $157.99 | -$4 | 48% 1222-1315 (2537) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 82.4¢ | $148.8 | $143.84 | -$4.96 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Yesavg 79¢ | $108.07 | $107 | -$1.07 | — 1-10 (11) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $30.1 | $29.72 | -$0.38 | — 1-9 (10) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$161.99
Value
$157.99
PnL
-$4
Record
48%
1222-1315 (2537)
Invested
$148.8
Value
$143.84
PnL
-$4.96
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$108.07
Value
$107
PnL
-$1.07
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$29.72
PnL
-$0.38
Record
—
1-9 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.