Will Jared Goff finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing yards?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 82¢ · $218 held · ended Jan 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$218.41
$5.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81.2¢ | $242.18 | $124.79 | +$2.61 | 34% 19149-36800 (55949) |
 extractive-manateeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $86.08 | $76.98 | -$9.1 | 34% 661-1265 (1926) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $12.38 | $12.38 | +$9.88 | — 4-0 (4) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $2.34 | $4.26 | +$1.92 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
Invested
$242.18
Value
$124.79
PnL
+$2.61
Record
34%
19149-36800 (55949)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100Invested
$86.08
Value
$76.98
PnL
-$9.1
Record
34%
661-1265 (1926)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$12.38
PnL
+$9.88
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$1.92
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.