Will Japan win Group F at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $8K held · ends Feb 6, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$8.4K
$1.7K
74.4¢ → 93.1¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JabJabich | Noavg 73.3¢ | $4.0K | $5.1K | +$1.1K | 62% 253-157 (410) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$241 | 77% 146-43 (189) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 24.5¢ | $130.59 | $495.5 | +$364.91 | 47% 1936-2175 (4111) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $13.2 | $78.66 | +$66.12 | 15% 5011-29434 (34445) |
Invested
$3,994.58
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
62%
253-157 (410)
Invested
$2,551.99
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$241
Record
77%
146-43 (189)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$130.59
Value
$495.5
PnL
+$364.91
Record
47%
1936-2175 (4111)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$78.66
PnL
+$66.12
Record
15%
5011-29434 (34445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.